The Signal and the Noise

The Signal and the Noise Author Nate Silver
ISBN-10 9781101595954
Year 2012-09-27
Pages 544
Language en
Publisher Penguin
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012 New York Times Bestseller “Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.” —New York Times Book Review "Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century." —Rachel Maddow, author of Drift "A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." —New York Review of Books Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future. In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science. Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise. With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read. From the Trade Paperback edition.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 1623150523
Year 2012-11-01
Pages 46
Language en
Publisher
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise

Introduction to Random Signals and Noise Author Wim C. Van Etten
ISBN-10 9780470024126
Year 2006-02-03
Pages 270
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Random signals and noise are present in many engineering systems and networks. Signal processing techniques allow engineers to distinguish between useful signals in audio, video or communication equipment, and interference, which disturbs the desired signal. With a strong mathematical grounding, this text provides a clear introduction to the fundamentals of stochastic processes and their practical applications to random signals and noise. With worked examples, problems, and detailed appendices, Introduction to Random Signals and Noise gives the reader the knowledge to design optimum systems for effectively coping with unwanted signals. Key features: Considers a wide range of signals and noise, including analogue, discrete-time and bandpass signals in both time and frequency domains. Analyses the basics of digital signal detection using matched filtering, signal space representation and correlation receiver. Examines optimal filtering methods and their consequences. Presents a detailed discussion of the topic of Poisson processes and shot noise. An excellent resource for professional engineers developing communication systems, semiconductor devices, and audio and video equipment, this book is also ideal for senior undergraduate and graduate students in Electronic and Electrical Engineering.

Signal to Noise

Signal to Noise Author Silvia Moreno-Garcia
ISBN-10 1781082995
Year 2015-02-10
Pages 272
Language en
Publisher Solaris
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A literary fantasy about love, music and sorcery, set against the background of Mexico City. Mexico City, 1988: Long before iTunes or MP3s, you said “I love you” with a mixtape. Meche, awkward and fifteen, has two equally unhip friends -- Sebastian and Daniela -- and a whole lot of vinyl records to keep her company. When she discovers how to cast spells using music, the future looks brighter for the trio. With help from this newfound magic, the three friends will piece together their broken families, change their status as non-entities, and maybe even find love... Mexico City, 2009: Two decades after abandoning the metropolis, Meche returns for her estranged father’s funeral. It’s hard enough to cope with her family, but then she runs into Sebastian, and it revives memories from her childhood she thought she buried a long time ago. What really happened back then? What precipitated the bitter falling out with her father? And, is there any magic left?

Signal and Noise

Signal and Noise Author Brian Larkin
ISBN-10 0822341085
Year 2008-03-31
Pages 313
Language en
Publisher Duke University Press
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DIVExamines the role of media technologies in shaping urban Africa through an ethnographic study of popular culture in northern Nigeria./div

Noise and Vibration Analysis

Noise and Vibration Analysis Author Anders Brandt
ISBN-10 0470978112
Year 2011-03-29
Pages 464
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Noise and Vibration Analysis is a complete and practical guide that combines both signal processing and modal analysis theory with their practical application in noise and vibration analysis. It provides an invaluable, integrated guide for practicing engineers as well as a suitable introduction for students new to the topic of noise and vibration. Taking a practical learning approach, Brandt includes exercises that allow the content to be developed in an academic course framework or as supplementary material for private and further study. Addresses the theory and application of signal analysis procedures as they are applied in modern instruments and software for noise and vibration analysis Features numerous line diagrams and illustrations Accompanied by a web site at www.wiley.com/go/brandt with numerous MATLAB tools and examples. Noise and Vibration Analysis provides an excellent resource for researchers and engineers from automotive, aerospace, mechanical, or electronics industries who work with experimental or analytical vibration analysis and/or acoustics. It will also appeal to graduate students enrolled in vibration analysis, experimental structural dynamics, or applied signal analysis courses.

The Signal and the Noise in 30 Minutes

The Signal and the Noise    in 30 Minutes Author
ISBN-10 9781623150532
Year 2012-11-20
Pages
Language en
Publisher Callisto Media Inc
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The Signal and the Noise …in 30 Minutes is the essential guide to quickly understanding the fundamental components of prediction outlined in Nate Silver’s bestselling book, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail ¬– but Some Don’t. In The Signal and the Noise bestselling author, political analyst, and statistician Nate Silver investigates the fundamentals of forecasting and answers why too much information can be misleading. Exploring a variety of fields, ranging from politics to poker to Wall Street and global warming, Silver explores why some forecasts are successful and, perhaps more telling, why so many fail. Stressing the importance of acknowledging personal bias, Silver posits that better forecasters possess a superior understanding of uncertainty and are driven by truth and humility while overconfidence can lead to failure. Presenting a framework for what constitutes a good forecast, Silver provides insight and tools for understanding how to successfully utilize Big Data and decipher meaningful signals from random noise.

The Hedgehog and the Fox

The Hedgehog and the Fox Author Isaiah Berlin
ISBN-10 9781400846634
Year 2013-06-02
Pages 144
Language en
Publisher Princeton University Press
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"The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing." This ancient Greek aphorism, preserved in a fragment from the poet Archilochus, describes the central thesis of Isaiah Berlin's masterly essay on Leo Tolstoy and the philosophy of history, the subject of the epilogue to War and Peace. Although there have been many interpretations of the adage, Berlin uses it to mark a fundamental distinction between human beings who are fascinated by the infinite variety of things and those who relate everything to a central, all-embracing system. Applied to Tolstoy, the saying illuminates a paradox that helps explain his philosophy of history: Tolstoy was a fox, but believed in being a hedgehog. One of Berlin's most celebrated works, this extraordinary essay offers profound insights about Tolstoy, historical understanding, and human psychology. This new edition features a revised text that supplants all previous versions, English translations of the many passages in foreign languages, a new foreword in which Berlin biographer Michael Ignatieff explains the enduring appeal of Berlin's essay, and a new appendix that provides rich context, including excerpts from reviews and Berlin's letters, as well as a startling new interpretation of Archilochus's epigram.

Superforecasting

Superforecasting Author Philip Tetlock
ISBN-10 9781448166596
Year 2015-09-24
Pages 352
Language en
Publisher Random House
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WINNER OF THE CMI MANAGEMENT FUTURES BOOK OF THE YEAR AWARD What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project – an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions – has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit – whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals

Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals Author Gabriel Vasilescu
ISBN-10 9783540265108
Year 2006-01-17
Pages 709
Language en
Publisher Springer Science & Business Media
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Electronic Noise and Interfering Signals is a comprehensive reference book on noise and interference in electronic circuits, with particular focus on low-noise design. The first part of the book deals with mechanisms, modelling, and computation of intrinsic noise which is generated in every electronic device. The second part analyzes the coupling mechanisms which can lead to a contamination of circuits by parasitic signals and provides appropriate solutions to this problem. The last part contains more than 100 practical, elaborate case studies. The book requires no advanced mathematical training as it introduces the fundamental methods. Moreover, it provides insight into computational noise analysis with SPICE and NOF, a software developed by the author. The book addresses designers of electronic circuits as well as researchers from electrical engineering, physics, and material science. It should also be of interest for undergraduate and graduate students.

Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction

Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction Author Saeed V. Vaseghi
ISBN-10 9780470094952
Year 2006-02-03
Pages 480
Language en
Publisher John Wiley & Sons
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Signal processing plays an increasingly central role in the development of modern telecommunication and information processing systems, with a wide range of applications in areas such as multimedia technology, audio-visual signal processing, cellular mobile communication, radar systems and financial data forecasting. The theory and application of signal processing deals with the identification, modelling and utilisation of patterns and structures in a signal process. The observation signals are often distorted, incomplete and noisy and hence, noise reduction and the removal of channel distortion is an important part of a signal processing system. Advanced Digital Signal Processing and Noise Reduction, Third Edition, provides a fully updated and structured presentation of the theory and applications of statistical signal processing and noise reduction methods. Noise is the eternal bane of communications engineers, who are always striving to find new ways to improve the signal-to-noise ratio in communications systems and this resource will help them with this task. * Features two new chapters on Noise, Distortion and Diversity in Mobile Environments and Noise Reduction Methods for Speech Enhancement over Noisy Mobile Devices. * Topics discussed include: probability theory, Bayesian estimation and classification, hidden Markov models, adaptive filters, multi-band linear prediction, spectral estimation, and impulsive and transient noise removal. * Explores practical solutions to interpolation of missing signals, echo cancellation, impulsive and transient noise removal, channel equalisation, HMM-based signal and noise decomposition. This is an invaluable text for senior undergraduates, postgraduates and researchers in the fields of digital signal processing, telecommunications and statistical data analysis. It will also appeal to engineers in telecommunications and audio and signal processing industries.

Signal and Noise

Signal and Noise Author John Griesemer
ISBN-10 0091799619
Year 2004-01
Pages 593
Language en
Publisher Vintage
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On a dark, wet London morning in 1857, Chester Ludlow, an American engineer, arrives on the muddy banks of the Isle of Dogs to witness the launch of the largest steamship ever built, Isambard Kingdom Brunel's The Great Eastern. Ludlow, propelled by fierce ambition, is a key member of a small consortium whose ambition is to lay the first transatlantic telegraph cable. He has abandoned his fragile wife, Franny, on their estate in Maine. The couple are still in deep mourning for their daughter who died in a tragic accident, aged only four. As chief engineer, the charismatic Ludlow finds himself caught up not only in the new technology but also in the business of promotion, in order to fund this massively ambitious project. And this brings him in touch with a woman who will exert the most powerful influence on his life and work - the beautiful and enigmatic Katerina Lindt. As both Ludlow and Franny's lives start to unravel, they find themselves caught up in a relentless tide of change crashing across both continents and blurring the boundaries between the physical and the spiritual worlds.

Random Signals and Noise

Random Signals and Noise Author Shlomo Engelberg
ISBN-10 0849375541
Year 2006-10-11
Pages 216
Language en
Publisher CRC Press
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Understanding the nature of random signals and noise is critically important for detecting signals and for reducing and minimizing the effects of noise in applications such as communications and control systems. Outlining a variety of techniques and explaining when and how to use them, Random Signals and Noise: A Mathematical Introduction focuses on applications and practical problem solving rather than probability theory. A Firm Foundation Before launching into the particulars of random signals and noise, the author outlines the elements of probability that are used throughout the book and includes an appendix on the relevant aspects of linear algebra. He offers a careful treatment of Lagrange multipliers and the Fourier transform, as well as the basics of stochastic processes, estimation, matched filtering, the Wiener-Khinchin theorem and its applications, the Schottky and Nyquist formulas, and physical sources of noise. Practical Tools for Modern Problems Along with these traditional topics, the book includes a chapter devoted to spread spectrum techniques. It also demonstrates the use of MATLAB® for solving complicated problems in a short amount of time while still building a sound knowledge of the underlying principles. A self-contained primer for solving real problems, Random Signals and Noise presents a complete set of tools and offers guidance on their effective application.

Signal

Signal Author Stephen Few
ISBN-10 1938377052
Year 2015-05-01
Pages 225
Language en
Publisher
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Teaches the analytical skills necessary to glean value from the warehouses of accumulating data In this age of so-called Big Data, organizations are scrambling to implement new software and hardware to increase the amount of data they collect and store. However, in doing so they are unwittingly making it harder to find the needles of useful information in the rapidly growing mounds of hay. If you don't know how to differentiate signals from noise, adding more noise only makes things worse. When we rely on data for making decisions, how do we tell what qualifies as a signal and what is merely noise? In and of itself, data is neither. Assuming that data is accurate, it is merely a collection of facts. When a fact is true and useful, only then is it a signal. When it's not, it's noise. It's that simple. In "Signal," Stephen Few provides the straightforward, practical instruction in everyday signal detection that has been lacking until now. Using data visualization methods, he teaches how to apply statistics to gain a comprehensive understanding of one's data and adapts the techniques of Statistical Process Control in new ways to detect not just changes in the metrics but also changes in the patterns that characterize data.

Above the Noise

Above the Noise Author Carrie Morgan
ISBN-10 9781518344251
Year 2016-01-27
Pages
Language en
Publisher Motivational Press
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The Internet is an overwhelming cacophony,Ê each brand fighting to riseÉÊ ABOVE THE NOISE Based on digital public relations tactics to grow your internet marketing skills, resulting in more online visibility and influence, this book will help you launch an integrated mix of basic content marketing, social media and search engine optimization (SEO).Ê Ê YouÕll learn incredibly valuable tactics any beginner-to-intermediate marketer, business owner or entrepreneur can quickly master, resulting in: Ê ¥ Stronger brand clarityÊ- if you donÕt understand the benefits and audience appeal of your product or service, why should anyone else? ¥ Define a nicheÊyou can influence and dominate ¥ CreateÊconsistent messagingÊwrapped into every aspect of your online presence ¥ Learn the importance of monitoring and creatingÊtrust signals ¥ FormÊa habit of content creation ¥ IntegrateÊbasic SEOÊtactics for your website, blog and social media ¥ Amplify visibility throughÊfast, easy images and repurposed content ¥ Curate contentÊon social media to show expertise and provide value ¥ Be more authentic, toÊbuild a loyal audience, and ¥ Join conversationsÊthat fit your audience/brand Ê ItÕs not just about building visibility - itÕs about building visibility with the right audience most likely to buy your product or service, while building trust and influence that reinforces their decision. ItÕs about rising above your competitors to stand out, like an unstoppable force of nature.Ê Ê Above The NoiseÊis a must-read for those who have learned the basics of content marketing, SEO and social media, but struggle to form a united, integrated approach that drives actual results and revenue. Ê If four ofÊtheÊMOST IMPORTANT INFLUENCERSÊendorse this book, shouldnÕt youÊbuy it right now? Ê